Wall Street investors observed that, in the short term, asset classes like gold and bitcoin may reflect the performance seen during Donald Trump’s first presidency. The sentiment surrounding Trump’s pro-business second term has largely been optimistic, with the S&P 500 up nearly 4% since the presidential election. Recently, the index increased by 2.9%, marking its best weekly performance since early November. This growth occurs amid market uncertainty, including potential tariffs, a decrease in the rate cut cycle, and questions regarding the new administration’s regulatory agendas.
Market performance during Trump’s previous term
During the first 100 days of Trump’s prior presidency in 2017, the three major indexes experienced significant gains: the S&P 500 rose by 5.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 6.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 9.2%. Current investor sentiment suggests that another substantial rally may be unlikely this time. Jeff Kilburg, founder and CEO of KKM Financial, stated, “In contrast to Trump 1.0, we’ve seen the S&P 500 have two consecutive years of nearly 25% returns. It’s really challenging to have a repeat unless we see additional consumer strength and additional profits from corporations.”
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, noted that the current phase calls for a pause in the rally as investors await clarity on new administration policies, indicating, “We’re basically flat on the year.”
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Sector-specific analysis
In 2017, the technology sector saw an 11.5% rise during Trump’s first 100 days, while the energy sector fell by 8.2%. However, in the current year, the energy sector has gained 9.2%, leading the market, whereas technology stocks are down 0.2%. Investors expect energy stocks will maintain their strong performance. Hogan remarked, “The supply and demand for energy product is much more balanced than what has been reflected in the commodity prices.”
While artificial intelligence advancements will likely benefit technology stocks, investors do not foresee the sector achieving the same momentum as in past years. Kilburg stated, “Technology is still going to be a theme in 2025, but I think there’s a massive repricing coming in the first half of the year just because they’ve gotten too big, too fast.” Hogan and Kilburg also highlighted health care and financials as sectors that could outperform in the near future.
Predictions for crude oil and gasoline
Crude oil prices fluctuated during Trump’s initial term but ultimately declined. Currently, all three investors predict rising prices for crude oil. Kilburg stated, “If Trump is able to bring peace in the Middle East— which seemingly he has already brought here before the inauguration—then the price of oil is going to go up.” West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude futures have risen over 8% in 2025. Additionally, Boockvar cited new U.S. sanctions against Russian oil producers as a catalyst for potential price increases.
Regarding gasoline prices, which rose from January to April 2017, predicting their future trajectory is more complex this time. Boockvar explained that gasoline prices have not yet reflected the recent increases in crude oil. Hogan mentioned, “We’re likely going to see the average price per barrel of oil in the $75 to $85 range for WTI. That translates to at or about $3 in gasoline, all things remain equal.” Conversely, Kilburg warned that the pain at the pump may rise for U.S. consumers due to earlier lower crude oil prices.
Gold, bitcoin, and the U.S. dollar outlook
All investors anticipate that gold prices will rise over the next 100 days, echoing trends from 2017. Hogan pointed to geopolitical uncertainty as a reason, while Kilburg referenced inflation concerns. Boockvar remarked, “Gold has been able to rally in the face of a strong dollar and rising real rates, and that’s because of the voracious demand from central banks.”
On the other hand, bitcoin’s trajectory may be influenced by administration policies, with Hogan suggesting that a crypto-friendly approach could enhance its value. Bitcoin has recently topped the $100,000 mark. However, Kilburg cautioned against potential retracement, saying, “It’s an old adage to buy the rumor, sell the news. If we don’t have the U.S. government buying bitcoin in the first 100 days, then we will see a pullback in bitcoin.”
The U.S. dollar increased in value against major currencies from January to April 2017 and has shown similar patterns post-Trump’s reelection. Boockvar predicted that this dollar rally might lose momentum, stating, “I have a feeling that Trump’s going to want a weaker dollar.” Hogan noted that a declining GDP rate in the U.S. may also limit dollar strength.
Despite this, Kilburg expressed optimism that the dollar could continue to rise, though he stated, “We’re not going to see another 10% leg higher unless we see something massive tariff-wise.”
Treasury yields amid changing economic conditions
Since 2017, yields on U.S. Treasurys have increased significantly, with the 2-year Treasury yield recently around 4.283% and the 10-year yield at approximately 4.623%. Investors predict that the 2-year yield will likely remain stable, reflecting anticipated Federal Reserve monetary policy. Hogan explained, “The two-year likely continues to mirror what our interpretation of the Fed monetary policy is going to be.”
The 10-year yield, which reflects broader economic growth sentiment, may settle between 4.25% to 4.75%. Kilburg stated that a temporary steepening of the yield curve could occur as bondholders may seek increased returns for risk. “I actually think we’re going to have a short-term move in the 10-year above 5%. Then there’ll be a flush out of repositioning by some of the biggest institutionally positioned Treasury holders,” Kilburg added.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. We do not endorse any specific investment strategies or make recommendations regarding the purchase or sale of any securities.
Featured image credit: Kerem Gülen/Ideogram
