In a recent speech, Google CEO Larry Page claimed that big data analysis such as Google Flu Trends would be able to save up to 100,000 lives each year.

This promising outlook has now been put into question by a study conducted by the American Journal of Preventive Medicine. John Ayers, a researching professor at San Diego State University, even considers over-reliance on the results of such analysis to be potentially harmful to public health. Both the study of Ayers’ research team and other recently published papers on the topic prove Google Flu Trends’ failure to predict accurate numbers in most cases.

Using publicly available data provided by Google, manually giving differing weight to the monitored queries, as well as using artificial intelligence systems which automatically correct the bias of the queries, the research team was able to significantly improve the accuracy of such predictions. Google’s analysis overestimated the number of cases to a degree of about 73%, compared to about 26% from the upgraded system.

While Page suggested that an oversensitivity on privacy matters was a major obstacle for the effective analysis of big amounts of medical data, this study puts an emphasis on improving the way the collected data is analysed. Benjamin Althouse, another author of the study underlines the importance of transparency in such endeavours, stating that “Reproducibility and validation are keystones of the scientific method, and they should be at the centre of the big data revolution.”

While Google did not respond to the claims made by this specific study, they did respond to an earlier research, stating that they “welcome feedback on how we can refine Flu Trends” and that they “review the Flu Trends model each year“ in order to improve their accuracy. Ayers emphasised that it is not their goal to discredit the potential of big data in the field of public health, merely that it is necessary to create a platform for communal expertise to live up to it.

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(image credit: Sari Dennise)

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In an attempt similar to Google Flu Trends, The Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention will be working with online search giant Baidu to use its large user database to help forecast flu outbreaks. The deputy director of the Centre, Gao Fu, suggested that the prediction tool may be available later this year and that “big data will play a major role in safeguarding and improving public health.”

Although Baidu declined to comment on the health-project, saying it is still being developed, the initiative could in theory be vital for health officials when predicting outbreaks in certain localities. The increase in H7N9 infections – including the deaths in Zhejiang this year – has led to the country being “perpetually on alert against the threat of pandemics,” and initiatives like the CDC’scould help the country significantly improve its prevention techniques.

“The traditional flu monitoring system, via surveillance from hospitals, is thought to have more gaps in China compared to developed countries, as locals don’t necessarily visit doctors regularly and may wait longer for symptoms to develop before seeking professional advice,” said Chao Deng in an article on the Wall Street Journal. “Data from search engine activity would in theory give Chinese health officials faster access to information that could point to emerging trends, such as possible flu outbreaks in certain localities.”

While Google’s Flu Trend faced considerable criticism last year for overestimating the Christmas flu season by 50 percent in 2012, Lai Shengjie – a researcher at CDC’s infection and prevention control department – said they would diversify their data sources to create a more accurate model. Along with the data collected from the 130 million daily users of Baidu, the CDC are also considering data relating to population movements, weather conditions, and geographical factors to successfully predict flu outbreaks. According to one report, “other medical conditions and issues such as digestive tract diseases, food poisoning, smoking control and infectious outbreak response might be included in the project.”

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(Image Credit: Eneas De Troya)